Real Estate

Atisreal's "European Office Market 2009"

Atisreal (BNP Paribas Real Estate) regularly publishes market studies, analyses and research based on an extremely large volume of information and on in-depth knowledge of each local market.

Atisreal's "European Office Market 2009" is an annual publication presenting European major cities' office markets tendencies for the year to come. Prime rents, take-up, supply, completions, investment and net prime office yield are analysed for cities such as Brussels, Barcelona, Kiev, Athens, Central London, etc.

Executive summary
The US sub-prime mortgage crisis spread to a global financial crisis in 2007. The turning point of this crisis was the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Afterwards, one after the other, the developed economies entered recession. The euro area as a whole entered recession for the first time in its history, after a second consecutive drop in GDP growth in Q3 2008, as did the British economy one quarter later. Today, the economic framework is looking gloomier and more pessimistic forecasts are published. GDP growth is expected to be largely negative in all the big world economies. [...]

The real estate market has been impacted by this economic crisis. The occupier market slowed down in 2008. Although take-up appeared more resilient compared to the investment market, employment reductions will significantly affect the office take-up volume in 2009.
The tighter financing conditions and the difficulty for buyers and sellers in agreeing prices will continue to restrain investment deals. Large deals will still be rare and the main actors will be "cash-rich" buyers that do not require significant bank credit.

Read the full analysis city by city.

Find out more about Atisreal's European market studies and research.

Author of publication : Atisreal (BNP Paribas Real Estate)

April 2009

Atisreal's outlook for the commercial real estate market in 2009

Atisreal (BNP Paribas Real Estate) regularly publishes market studies, analyses and research based on an extremely large volume of information and on in-depth knowledge of each local market.

Atisreal's Houseview - Outlook 2009 is an annual publication presenting the European commercial real estate markets' tendencies for the year to come.
From 2007, the US subprime crisis rapidly turned into a fully fledged financial crisis across the world that by 2008 had a significant impact on economic growth. Mistrust took hold and spread with the collapse of the Lehman Brothers, stopping liquidity movement to the economy.

All the economic forecasts made dramatic downturns following the incident. Industrialised countries fell into recession in 2008 and are only likely to climb out slowly sometime in 2009. The annual average economic growth in industrialised countries will be negative over 2009 and less than 1% in 2010. This means that many jobs will be lost over the next two years, further worsening the commercial real estate market.
[...]

Contents
- Steep recession in 2009 and slow recovery in 2010
- Continued fall in take-up and significant decline in office rents in 2009
- The decline in commercial real estate investment and prime office yields should slow sharply in 2009

Read the full report

In an interview, Max Leroux, Atisreal France's president, discusses the commercial real estate markets' tendencies:

"Our forecast for 2009 is an investment volume of about 10 to 13 billion euro – that is, slightly down from 2008." [...]

For Ile-de-France, the office rents market stood up well in 2008, amounting to some 2,400,000 square metres of let space – which represents a decline of only slightly less than 400,000 square metres over a year. However, for 2009 we expect to see a somewhat more significant decline, and forecast total let space of between 1,500,000 and 1,800,000 square metres.[...]

After what's likely to be a somewhat difficult year in 2009, we believe the corporate real estate market in France should pick up again – by perhaps mid-2010, and certainly by the start of 2011.[...]

Read the transcript of the interview.

Find out more about Atisreal's European market studies and research.

Author of publication : Atisreal (BNP Paribas Real Estate)

March 2009

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